By Mike McIntyre
When was the last time the women's game had this much depth? I'm not
knocking the WTA Tour, which in fact has had more depth in recent years than
the men's Federer vs. Nadal show. When I look at the Australian Open draw
though, I'm just floored with the amount of talent out there. This is a
fantastic way to kick-off the 2010 Grand Slam calendar.
The Favorites:
Number one ranked Serena Williams has a pretty sweet ride to the
quarter-finals from the looks of it. I don't expect her to drop a set for the
first week that's for sure. There's simply nobody in her section of the draw
that can keep up with her power, experience and winning-attitude. If she truly
did tweak something against Elena Dementieva in Sydney, this draw gives her some time before
she has to bring out her 'A' game. Williams will be the favorite to add to her
existing collection of four Aussie Open titles, the most recent being a year
ago.
A nice third round match-up in the top-half could include Vera Zvonareva
against Ana Ivanovic. Either one of these players could use a good Grand Slam
showing to correct their career progress after a disappointing 2009. Zvonareva
started strong in 2009 with a semi-final showing in Australia, but after missing two
months in the middle of the year with injury she never returned to top form.
Ivanovic's season was a total disaster and it was hard to believe she was ever
the number one ranked player in the world. One of these two should still be
able to push through to the quarters.
U.S. Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki has a great path to perhaps a
semi-final berth in Australia.
Only Daniela Hantuchova may cause her some trouble before the quarters,
although Hantuchova has not had a big win in quite some time.
Wozniacki may meet the winner of an intriguing fourth round match between
Americans Venus Williams and Melanie Oudin. A Williams/Oudin match would give
tennis fans a nice glimpse of the past, present and future of American tennis
and perhaps that future is now. Oudin has some winnable matches early on while
Venus has looked mediocre since Wimbledon and
as she approaches thirty, is only a huge threat on grass.
In the bottom-half don't get your hopes up for second-seeded Dinara Safina.
The mentally fragile Russian attained the number one ranking for a period of time
in 2009, but will most be remembered for tanking in two Slam finals in Australia and Paris,
along with a brutal defeat in the semi's at Wimbledon.
A back injury hampered the last portion of her season and was acting up again
at the start of 2010 to keep her out of Brisbane.
Safina does not have enough match-play under her belt to be considered a major
threat here in Australia
nor is her mental game ready to compete in this first Slam of the season.
There are plenty of other top-level players ready to contend for the title
in the bottom section of the draw however, and the Belgians are leading the
charge.
Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Yanina Wickmayer are all in the same
quarter of the draw, which is unfortunate because they could all have easily
advanced quite far given their play of late. Clijsters has the most favorable
path and should get past Svetlana Kuznetsova to make the quarter-finals. A
second-consecutive Slam is a distinct possibility for her.
Henin, entered as a wild card, is not going to enjoy the same Grand Slam
return that Clijsters had at the U.S. Open. After a first round match with up
and coming Sorana Cirstea, Henin will most definitely face fifth seeded Elena
Dementieva - the same Dementieva who just won in Sydney defeating Serena in the finals. Henin
leads their head-to-head battles 9-2, but will have to fight hard to beat the
in-form Russian. I think Henin can beat Dementieva, but expecting her to have a
similar Cinderella-run like Clijsters did in Flushing Meadows is unlikely.
The third Belgian, and the future of tennis in that country, Yanina
Wickmayer, has already fought through three qualifying matches in order to
secure entry into the tournament. Wickmayer was not allowed to take the 16th
seeded spot that she is due because of the timing of her return from a
mishandled doping violation. She may face Italian Flavia Pennetta in the second
round and either Henin or Dementieva in the fourth round. Regardless of how she
fares here in Australia,
the twenty year old has a bright future ahead of her.
In the very last quarter of the draw we've got the unpredictable Jelena
Jankovic. Fairing no better than the fourth round of any Slam in 2009, Jankovic
has much to prove this year. She has a nice section of the draw and should stay
untroubled until the quarter-finals. Don't expect her to move much farther than
that however, as the Serbian is not the huge threat she used to be.
Do keep an eye on Maria Sharapova to have a big Aussie Open. The talented
Russian has come back admirably from shoulder surgery last year and has the
power game to defeat anyone on tour. If she can keep her serve consistent and
free of double-digit double faults, then she is more than capable of winning
this tourney. If she does come up against Safina in the round of sixteen, I see
Sharapova advancing with ease. There are more Grand Slam titles within her and
this could be the next one on her list.
Anticipated First-Round Matches:
Kimiko Date-Krumm vs Yaroslava Shvedova: The 39 year old veteran Date-Krumm
has been very impressive since returning to the tour in 2008 and has worked
herself back into being a dangerous player to face. Her return is even more
impressive given the fact she was away from the sport for twelve years. She'll
face a difficult player in Shvedova, who impressed in the late stages of 2009
with victories over Daniela Hantuchova in Toronto
and Jelena Jankovic at the U.S. Open.
Caroline Wozniacki vs Aleksandra Wozniak: It amazes me how often these two
near-identical names get paired together in so many tournaments. Unfortunately
for the Canadian Wozniak, it rarely ends up in her favor. The fourth seeded
Wozniacki has won five of their six meetings although the pair have usually
produced closely contested matches. Wozniak is ranked 34th in the world right
now, so this is a fairly strong first rounder.
Jelena Dokic vs Alisa Kleybanova: While it was nice to watch Dokic have her
fairy-tale run to the quarter-finals in last year's edition, the same fate will
be difficult to duplicate. Dokic faces hard-hitting Russian Kleybanova whom she
defeated here in the fourth round last year by a tight score of 7-5, 5-7, 8-6.
Kleybanova's court movement is limited due to her stature, but she can really
hit the ball and was able to defeat Venus Williams, Vera Zvonareva and Jelena
Jankovic (twice) in 2009.