McIntyre Tennis

Rogers Cup WTA Draw Analysis

By Mike McIntyre

The Rogers Cup is ready to begin in Toronto on Monday where Petra Kvitova is the defending champion and Serena Williams is the number one seed. With both Vika Azarenka and Maria Sharapova having to withdraw due to injuries, many will be expecting a Serena victory by the time Sunday comes around.

As one of the top eight seeds in the tournament, Williams received a first round bye and will play the winner between qualifier Chanele Scheepers and Francesca Schiavone. Schiavone won the French Open in 2010 and then lost there in the finals in 2011, the same year she reached her career high ranking of 4th in the world. Clearly stronger on clay, the Italian is now ranked 55th in the world but still represents a quality opponent should she face Serena in round two.

This quarter of the draw has not just one, by two Williams sisters in it. Venus makes her first tournament appearance since the French Open and could face Serena in the third round. The two will play in a doubles exhibition on Monday night against former world number one Monica Seles and Canadian sensation Genie Bouchard. They are not however entered in the office Rogers Cup doubles draw.

Wimbledon champion Marion Bartoli will bring her two-handed forehand and backhand to Toronto and is also in this section of the draw as the 7th seed. She will face the winner between qualifier Lauren Davis and former Grand Slam champion and lucky loser Svetlana Kuznetsova. Oddly enough, Davis defeated Kuznetsova on Sunday in the final round of qualifying, but as the Russian was the highest ranked player in the qualifying draw, she takes a spot that was vacated in the main draw by Vika Azarenka's last minute withdrawal. Look for the veteran to make the necessary adjustments to earn the victory over Davis this time.

First Quarter Prediction: Serena Williams d. Bartoli

In the next quadrant of the draw, Agnieszka Radwanska will look to get her confidence going as she aims for her first Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open later this month. The third seed will have a tough opening match as she will face the winner between Yanina Wickmayer and Laura Robson. Wickmayer was once ranked as high as 12th in the world and has three career titles to her name. The 23 year old has still not reached her peak and while currently only ranked 57th in the world I feel that she is due for a breakthrough at some point. Robson for her part represents the future of British tennis on the WTA Tour and at only 19 years of age is the 32nd ranked player in the world. Wickmayer defeated Robson in their only career meeting back in 2010 on grass and should expect a much tougher match this time around. This match-up is one I would recommend to anyone attending on Monday and has three sets written all over it.

Up and coming American Sloan Stephens is the 14th seed and also in the second quarter of the tournament. Lookout as well for the future Mrs. Alexander Ovechkin - Maria Kirilenko that is, along with 5th seeded Sara Errani who will threaten Radwanska for a spot in the semi-finals.

The 26 year old Errani is one spot below her career best ranking in singles and has made the finals of two clay court and two hard court tournaments proving she can play well on either surface. She got to the semi finals of the French Open where she was humbled by Serena Williams 6-0, 6-1. Her record at the Rogers Cup is a mediocre 1-5, so I'm not sure if playing in Canada agrees with her too much. Still, given her 5-1 record against Kirilenko I would expect her to make her way to the quarter-finals to face Radwanska against whom she has struggled with a 2-6 head-to-head.

Second Quarter Prediction: Radwanska d. Errani

In the third quarter of play Li Na of China is the 4th seed and made the finals of the event a year ago while Angelique Kerber of Germany is the 8th seed. Kerber has had a solid but not spectacular season and is 1-6 lifetime vs Na. Former French Open champion Ana Ivanovic is also in this section and the 16th seed could also put together a good run here in Canada where she won the event all the way back in 2006 in Montreal. 

I'd look a little bit beyond the top seedings in this part of the draw to 11th ranked Italian Roberta Vinci to have a strong outing here. She has made the quarter-finals the past two years and knocked off some quality players while on Canadian soil. Her last tournament appearance was nearly a month ago but she won that event in Palermo on clay.

Don't overlook Dominika Cibulkova as well who could face Kerber in the second round and is currently ranked 21st in the world. The Slovak just won the event in Stanford last week where she knocked-off Radwanska in the final. The win was particularly meaningful to Cibulkova as she was double "bageled" earlier in the year by Radwanska 6-0, 6-0 in the finals in Sydney. Her confidence levels should be enough to carry her through a few rounds.

Third Quarter Prediction: Vinci d. Ivanovic

In the last part of the draw, Caroline Wozniacki replaced 2nd seed Azarenka late Sunday night and will receive a bye even though she is the 9th seed in the event. Azarenka lost for the first time in nine career meetings on Sunday to Sam Stosur in the finals of Carlsbad, California. Her official reason for withdrawing in Toronto was due to a lower back injury. 

The 23 year old Wozniacki is still the youngest player in the top ten in the rankings even though it seems she has been there for quite some time now. She brings a modest 21-16 record on the WTA Tour into this event and has been struggling to find consistency all season long. The Dane was 3-6 during the clay court season and then fell in the second round of Wimbledon. Getting back onto hard courts is probably the best thing for her at this point.

Wozniacki, who won here in 2010, could face Jelena Jankovic in the third round and then either defending champion Kvitova or Sam Stosur in the quarter-finals. Jankovic is 29-12 on the season but has lost in the first round of the Rogers Cup in each of the past three years. Stosur made the finals in Toronto two years ago but has also been inconsistent since her U.S. Open victory that same summer. Kvitova meanwhile has won a hard court event in Dubai earlier this year and made the quarter-finals of Wimbledon.

This section of the draw is extremely tough, with rising Canadian sensation Genie Bouchard also present. Bouchard opens with a tough match against Russian Alisa Kleybanova who was once ranked as high as 20th in the world before Hodgkin's Lymphoma forced her to withdraw from the game. Kleybanova played in only one event in 2012 and has only played in three this year that have all been challenger type events. Currently ranked 602nd in the world, it will be a real test for her to get back up in the rankings but something we'd all love to see given the difficulties she has faced.

Fourth Quarter Prediction: Kvitova d. Jankovic

Semi-final predictions:

Serena Williams d. Radwanska

Kvitova d. Vinci

Final Prediction:

Williams d. Kvitova

Serena will be hungry to reclaim the Rogers Cup title and show that her loss at Wimbledon a month ago was just a small blip on the screen in her otherwise stellar 2013 season.

Check back with us often throughout the week as we will be covering the tournament live from the Rexall Centre in Toronto. Follow us on Twitter as well for timely updates on all of the action both here and in Montreal.

Saturday Provides Great Action at U.S. Open

By Mike McIntyre

The half-way point of the 2010 U.S. Open approaches and with it we should get some great matches this weekend in New York.

Today Janko Tipsarevic will attempt to continue his high-risk, high-reward play against acrobatic Frenchman Gael Monfils. The two are heading towards a first set tie-break as I write and this one has five set potential for sure. A great chance for one of these players to make the round of 16 at Flushing Meadows.

In women's action Jelena Jankovic is down a set to Kaia Kanepi, but she seems to have a knack for dramatic victories. Don't count her out just yet. With Serena Williams out, this tournament offers JJ an excellent chance to finally get a Grand Slam title - but the consistency and mental resilience just doesn't seem to be there.

Later, American Beatrice Capra will attempt to do what Melanie Oudin did a year ago - upset Russian Maria Sharapova. All the tennis experts are picking Sharapova to emerge victorious at the end of the U.S. Open, but she'll likely have to get through top seeded Caroline Wozniacki if she defeats Capra today.

Men's favorite Roger Federer takes to the court later this afternoon against Paul-Henri Mathieu. Federer owns their career head-to-head 4-0, with victories on every surface. Expect him to continue to sail towards the finish line.

In the opening match of the evening session, look forward to watching veteran James Blake try to out-gun third seeded Novak Djokovic. It's been nice to see Blake playing some decent tennis so far in the tournament, but he is seriously out-matched against Djokovic. If this one had been played during the hot day time conditions we saw earlier in the week then I'd give Blake a fighting chance - but not with the ideally cool evening temperatures.

Enjoy the tennis everyone!

 

Dementieva and Schiavone Advance at French Open

By Mike McIntyre

Elena Dementieva won an all-Russian quarter-final battle against Nadia Petrova today in Paris 2-6, 6-2, 6-0. Dementieva improves to 8-7 against Petrova and will face Francesca Schiavone in the semi-finals. Schiavone advances to her first Slam semi-final after defeating third seeded Caroline Wozniacki 6-2, 6-3.

Anyone starting to get the feeling that this could be Dementieva's tournament? I like her chances on clay against Serena Williams, who is the favorite to advance to the finals in the top-half of the women's draw. Williams has not won the French since 2002.

Ljubicic Wins First Masters Series Title at Indian Wells

Ivan Ljubicic won his first Masters Series title at the age of 31 at Indian Wells on Sunday, defeating American Andy Roddick 7-6(3), 7-6(5). The Croatian veteran put on the best performance of his career en route to championship and should now vault back into the top fifteen in the ATP rankings. 

Earlier in the day, Jelena Jankovic took a big step towards re-establishing her floundering career by defeating Caroline Wozniacki 6-2, 6-4 to win the WTA title at the same tournament. It was her first victory in seven months.

Here is a closer look at the finals from the Associated Press:

INDIAN WELLS, Calif. (AP)—Ivan Ljubicic had been in big finals before and always lost. Then getting beat in the first round in five consecutive tournaments last year had him thinking about doing something else.

“I had my problems, like everybody else,” he said.

All that was forgotten Sunday when the Croatian outlasted Andy Roddick 7-6 (3), 7-6 (5) in a battle of big servers to win the BNP Paribas Open, earning his first ATP Masters 1000 title after three runner-up finishes.

Ljubicic set up his fourth match point with the last of his 20 aces, then won with a serve that Roddick couldn’t return. At 31, Ljubicic is the second-oldest winner at Indian Wells behind Jimmy Connors, who was five months older as the 1984 champion.

“It was really a mind game,” he said. “When you have two big serves, not a lot of rallies happening, it’s a very mental match. I was fortunate enough to be more relaxed by the end of the match.”

Roddick was trying to become the first American man to win at Indian Wells since 2001, but he trailed in both tiebreakers. He had beaten Ljubicic seven times in 10 meetings, winning their last match at Indian Wells in two tiebreakers in 2007.

“I felt like I was winning my fair share of the rallies once we got into them,” he said. “I just ran into a guy who served great on the big points. Unfortunately that’s probably the one thing that I don’t have control over out there.”

Jelena Jankovic had a much easier time in the women’s final, defeating Caroline Wozniacki 6-2, 6-4 for her first title in seven months.

Ranked 26th in the world, Ljubicic will rise to around 13th in Monday’s ATP Tour rankings, returning to the top 20 for the first time in more than two years.

He broke through in an ATP Masters 1000 final for the first time after losing in 2006 to Roger Federer at Miami, and in 2005 to Tomas Berdych at Paris and Rafael Nadal at Madrid. Ljubicic is the first player outside the top 20 to win a Masters 1000 title since No. 21 David Nalbandian in 2007.

“Looking at my career, I did feel like I was missing it,” he said. “It’s really a fantastic feeling to finally have it. It gives something special to your career.”

There were no service breaks in the 2-hour final. Roddick served three love games in the second set, but had nothing to show for his effort.

Ljubicic won the first three points of the first-set tiebreaker. Roddick’s forehand error left him trailing 6-3. Ljubicic set up his winning forehand with a drop shot—a tactic that repeatedly worked against Roddick.

Ljubicic raced to a 6-2 lead in the second-set tiebreaker, but he double-faulted on his first match point. He challenged the call on Roddick’s service return, but the ball was on the line, leaving the American trailing 6-4. Roddick got to 6-5 with an ace before Ljubicic closed it out.

“He served great. The last two days were an exhibition on how to serve big points,” Roddick said. “I felt like I was getting aced or he was hitting a service winner every time I’d worked my way into a game.”

Jankovic, the former top-ranked player from Serbia, dictated from the baseline throughout her 1 1/2 -hour match, hitting the lines and keeping Wozniacki on the run.

Jankovic broke Wozniacki three times in the first set and again in the first game of the second set.

“I wanted to be really aggressive, but at the same time patient, and not really go for too much or go over the limit with some balls,” Jankovic said. “I waited for my opportunities, and when I had them, I took them.”

Wozniacki brought her coach, who is her father, on court once in each set, but it didn’t help. She never found a solution to Jankovic’s pinpoint power.

“I tried to change it when I saw it was not going my way, but I just made a few too many errors at the important points,” Wozniacki said.

She held to trail 5-4 in the second set, prompting Jankovic to summon her coach. Jankovic then served out the match, setting up match point with a backhand down the line. Wozniacki’s forehand return sailed long on the final point.

“I was making a few too many errors and I didn’t have too many first serves in,” said Wozniacki, who won 19 of 30 first-serve points. “Normally, the other matches I set the points up with my service well. That didn’t happen today. Then I was on the back foot and she was deciding.”

Jankovic kissed her racket and later did the same to the crystal trophy, which was so heavy she couldn’t lift it in triumph.

“I haven’t been working out in the gym lately,” she said. “Caroline could have done a better job. She should have helped.”

Two years removed from being the world’s No. 1 player, Jankovic is projected to rise to No. 8 when the WTA Tour rankings are released Monday. She hadn’t won a title since August at Cincinnati; Indian Wells is her 12th career title.

“I’m looking forward to playing some good tennis and really doing the right things out there,” she said, “and if I’m doing that, I’ll be winning big titles and the ranking will come on its own. I’m looking to do well in the big events.

Wozniacki, last year’s U.S. Open finalist, has yet to beat Jankovic in four meetings. The 19-year-old Dane will reach a career-high No. 2.

She had her best year yet in 2009, reaching eight finals and winning three. She lost to Kim Clijsters in her first Grand Slam final at the U.S. Open.

Shahar Peer Wins Again in Dubai

By Mike McIntyre

Shahar Peer's first tournament in Dubai is turning out to be quite the memorable experience so far. Israel's best tennis player defeated top seed Caroline Wozniacki 6-2, 7-5 on Wednesday to advance to the quarterfinals against Li Na at the Barclays Dubai Tennis Championships.

This story has captivated me since a year ago when Peer was refused entry into the United Arab Emirates to compete in the tournament due to her Israeli citizenship.

Despite her inclusion this year, there are still numerous restrictions being placed on Peer during her stay in Dubai. While I'm working on an article that outlines these measures, check out her coach - Pablo Giacopelli - as he blogs about their experiences in Dubai. On top of clearly being an excellent instructor, Giacopelli has a fluid writing style and sly sense of humor that I've enjoyed reading. He also provides excellent insight into the manner in which Peer is being received during her stay in the Emirates.

For more Shahar Peer news, check her out on Twitter or her official website. 

Stay tuned in the days ahead for my complete article on Shahar Peer and the real story of her first visit to Dubai.

Australian Open Day Three Preview

By Mike McIntyre

Featured Match: Elena Dementieva vs Justine Henin

Without the luxury of a seeding here in Australia, Justine Henin knew full-well that she may get a difficult draw in her first Grand Slam since emerging from retirement. She probably didn't expect it would be this difficult however, as she must now face the 5th seeded Dementieva.

Dementieva is one of the most talented players to never have won a Grand Slam tournament and is fresh off a victory in her first tournament of the year in Sydney a week ago where she defeated Serena Williams in the final.

Henin has also looked sharp since returning this year and fell to Kim Clijsters in her first tournament back in Brisbane two weeks ago. Along the way she defeated top players like Nadia Petrova and Ana Ivanovic, although neither of them have the consistency of Dementieva.

Henin has a 9-2 career head-to-head record again Dementieva which might help her mentally in approaching this match. Both players know they are in for a struggle that will likely last three sets.

Result: Henin is a special type of player and despite her year-and-a-half layoff I'm picking her to prevail in this one in three sets.

Upset of the Day: Andrey Golubev vs Ivan Ljubicic

I don't think we can call Henin over Dementieva an upset, so instead look to Andrey Golubev to defeat veteran and 24th seed, Ivan Ljubicic.

Golubev knocked off American Mardy Fish in the first round, while Ljubicic was fortunate to draw an Australian wildcard named Jason Kubler. Golubev has therefore already faced a tough opponent while Ljubicic has not.

Ljubicic is eight years older and has never performed well in the Slams. He started 2010 by appearing in the Kooyong Classic exhibition where he lost two of his three matches, only defeating Robin Soderling who had to retire from that match with injury. 

Result: Golubev in four.

Canadian Content: Aleksandra Wozniak vs Caroline Wozniacki

Aleksandraw Wozniak is the only real Canadian threat in singles play on either the ATP or WTA tour's at the moment and at the age of 22 she has still yet to reach her potential. She has a losing record (1-5) against Wozniacki but has played well against her in their recent encounters.

Wozniacki has been mediocre since her run to the finals of the U.S. Open, so Wozniak has a shot here. 

Result: Wozniacki in three.

One ticket to Ireland please: Louk Sorensen

Sorensen is the first tennis player from Ireland to win a main-draw match in the Open era on the ATP tour. The 25 year-old came through the qualifying draw before defeating Yen-Hsun Lu in the first round. It's a nice story, but Sorensen is going to get hammered by the power of John Isner tomorrow.

"I don't know what's going on right now," said Sorensen after his match against Lu, "I've suddenly got so many friend requests on Facebook." 

Result: Isner in three.

Other Matches of Interest:

Unseeded James Blake takes on 4th seed Juan Martin Del Potro in a great second round match. Blake has won their only previous encounter but that was over two years ago and he'll find Del Potro a much better player than he was back then. Should be a fun one to watch.

Result: Del Potro in four.