By Mike McIntyre
There has perhaps never been more at stake in women's tennis at the final Grand Slam of the season as there is this year, as eight different players could leave the U.S. Open with the World No. 1 ranking. While some have a much stronger shot at accomplishing the feat than others, it reflects a WTA Tour that is still in-flux with the absence of Serena Williams and reveals a group of players who have yet to decide who among them might settle into the role for an extended period of time. Here is a look at the four quarters of the main draw and who we think stands the best chance of hoisting the trophy, and perhaps also emerging as the next No. 1 player in the world.
First Quarter
Current World No. 1 Karolina Pliskova assumed the role thanks to a Johanna Konta victory over Simona Halep at Wimbledon after she herself had already been knocked-out of the draw. Pliskova seemed comfortable talking about her new position at the top of the rankings while she was in Toronto at the Rogers Cup but was pushed to a third set there by 19 year old Naomi Osaka in the third round before falling to veteran Caroline Wozniacki in the quarter-finals. Pliskova would get revenge against Wozniacki in the quarter-finals in Cincinnati before falling to eventual champion Garbine Muguruza in the semi-finals there. I foresee this progression continuing for Pliskova with a return to the finals in Flushing Meadows as a distinct possibility. She's in a great section of the draw filled with recent underacheivers like Kristina Mladenovic and over overachievers like Barbora Strycova in her path towards the final sixteen. Potential quarter-final foes include the struggling Aga Radwanska, a relatively dormant Svetlana Kuznetsova and a couple of dangerous floaters like Lucie Safarova and the young CiCi Bellis. By the quarter-finals I see Pliskova's game coming into a groove and believe she will fight hard to keep her No. 1 status.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
Keep an eye on: Bellis, Safarova and Vandeweghe
Pass on: Kuznetsova, Mladenovic and Radwanska
Second Quarter
The two big seeds in this section of the draw couldn't be heading in more different directions. Fourth seeded Elina Svitolina may be a surprisingly unknown quantity to many quasi-tennis pundits - she was seriously undervalued by the media in Toronto - but she is a major obstacle to any serious U.S. Open contender. The 22 year old has won a whopping five titles in 2017 and is proving she is ready to claim her first Grand Slam. It may not happen in New York, but it will indeed happen at some point in the near future the way she has been playing.
Photo by Bob McIntyre
Also in this section is sixth seeded and defending champion Angelique Kerber who has had a abysmal season for someone who came into 2017 holding two Slam titles to her name. Kerber is limping into the Open and has not given any signs in match play that she is ready to raise her game to the levels it was at a year ago. Playing rising star Naomi Osaka of Japan in the opening round might very well afford Kerber a quick exit like she experienced at the French Open back in the spring. Osaka has pushed the likes of Konta, Halep and recently in Toronto, Pliskova, to three sets and seems poised to have a breakthrough. She's a hard hitter and if she's healthy I think this could swing her way.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
Keep an eye on: Gavrilova, Keys, Osaka
Pass on: Bouchard, Ostapenko
Third Quarter
Caroline Wozniacki has had a resurgence this season and has climbed her way back into the top-ten in the rankings with appearances in six finals. Unfortunately for her she has lost every one of those finals and in straight sets to boot. Having made the finals twice at the U.S. Open (2009 and 2014) means that Wozniacki knows how to handle the pressure at the final major of the year. I can see a quarter-final appearance here this year but I don't think she has the fire of some of her younger top-ten peers.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
Venus Williams at the age of - well, does it even matter anymore - is also in this section of the draw and the American superstar has already surprised us by making the finals of two Slams in 2017. Her summer appearances don't inspire confidence but you can't count out someone who has made the finals here four times previously including two tournament victories. Her last showing in the finals was fifteen years ago however so I'm not banking on Venus to make it past the fourth round or quarter-finals at best.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
My pick here - and it's not groundbreaking by any stretch - is Garbine Muguruza. She can play more freely now after picking up her second Grand Slam at Wimbledon as she proved with her recent win in Cincy. She has a nice draw, matches-up well vs Wozniacki and Venus, and isn't afraid to take her chances and go for it. I also like Caroline Garcia of France as a potential dark horse here who is the 18th seed in this part of the draw. People might also be mentioning Petra Kvitova and who wouldn't want to see her succeed, but I don't like her play on hardcourts this summer.
Keep an eye on: Garcia, Makarova
Pass on: Kvitova, Rybarikova
Fourth Quarter
Let's just get right to it and admit that the Simona Halep vs Maria Sharapova match is one of the greatest first round matches of all-time at a Slam. We get the No. 2 seed against the former World No. 1 and U.S. Open champion of 2006. Halep must have been in disbelief when she found out who she drew in her opening match and yet I feel that overcoming this obstacle is almost a necessity for Halep if she wants to hoist a Grand Slam trophy one day. Mentally she needs something to prove to herself that she is a true champion and what better than by defeating one of the greatest players (love her or hate her) of recent history. Her 0-6 record against Sharapova is daunting, yet Halep has played very consistent tennis this year and has made it deep in almost every tournament she has played. Recent no-shows in the later stages of Toronto and Cincy have me concerned if I'm a Halep fan, as there is clearly something that is holding her back from playing anywhere near her best tennis when it seems to count. As if her 6-1, 6-1 thrashing by Svitolina in the semi-finals of Toronto wasn't bad enough, she followed that up by getting blitzed 6-1, 6-0 in the finals of Cincinnati by Muguruza. Halep is only five points behind Pliskova for the No. 1 ranking and that can either motivate or hinder her performance against Sharapova depending on how she reacts Monday night.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
The good news for Halep is that a) Sharapova has not proven to be healthy enough to compete in recent months and b) the rest of her draw is pretty favorable. Her second through fourth round matches don't make me blink an eye if she wins her opener, and Johanna Konta could meet her in the quarter-finals but the Brit has not really performed on the hardcourts since her Wimbledon semi-final run.
Photo by Jimmie48 Photography
Do keep a close eye on Sloane Stephens who has been straight-up fire this summer. In only her third tournament back after an eleven month layoff, the American made the semi-finals in Toronto beating Kvitova and Kerber along the way. She then followed that up with another semi-final appearance in Cincinnati to prove that Toronto was no fluke. That saw her ranking skyrocket from 934 in the world to its current spot at No. 84. Only a matter of time before she is back in the top 20 and with her recent confidence she is not someone you would want to face. A second round match against New Haven finalist Dominika Cibulkova is an early test, but she has had plenty of those lately and handled them with relative ease.
Photo by Mike McIntyre
Keep an eye on: Goerges, Stephens
Pass on: Everyone else not named Halep or Sharapova
Comments