By Mike McIntyre
Unlike most sports, tennis begins with one of its biggest moments of the year. A mere two weeks into the new tennis season in January and already fans are treated to a Grand Slam in Melbourne at the Australian Open. Why not cut right to the highest level of competition, right?
While some players have thrived under this early season pressure (see Andre Agassi and Novak Djokovic), other are simply not prepared that early into the new year to find the highest gear required to battle through best of five sets of pounding hard court action under the Australian sun.
Let's have a look at some of the favorites on the ATP World Tour to take home the first Slam of the season.
The conversation must start (and likely end) with world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. With five titles at the Aussie Open including four of the past five, how can anyone else be considered the heavy favorite once again this year? After completing one of the greatest seasons ever on the ATP World Tour in 2015 with a 82-6 record, Djokovic is heading into the new year as the man to beat. While repeating a three Slam season will be a demanding task, even if he does experience a slight hiccup Djokovic is still going to be the toughest man to face.
Without a Slam victory since Wimbledon in 2013, world No. 2 Andy Murray needs to grab a Major title in 2016 to justify his inclusion at the top of the men's game. Sure he was largely responsible for Great Britain winning the Davis Cup a couple of months ago and he can add that to his two Grand Slams and Olympic Gold medal making him one of the greats of his generation, but Murray is seemingly wasting his talent and potential by failing to add to his Grand Slam count. How this man has not achieved more since his U.S. Open triumph in 2012 is beyond me. With his coach Amelie Mauresmo back working with him this year I look for Murray to win at least one of the Slams in Australia, Wimbledon or Flushing Meadows.
The all-time greatest with 17 Slam titles is Roger Federer and he had a fantastic season in 2015 with two Slam finals. Turning 35 this coming year would signal the end of the road for most players but with Federer he somehow seems to continue to find ways (SABR) to stay fresh and try new things in order to compete for another big one. Hard to believe he has not won a Slam in over three years and it is true that as good as he is, the window is certainly closing on his chances to add to his impressive haul. On hard courts and on grass Federer could definitely still do it but he really has to hope that someone else can take Djokovic out of the equation as he was unable to put a dent in his armor when it counted the most in 2015.
World No. 4 Stan Wawrinka has proven that he truly belongs in the upper echelon of the men's game. His first Slam win was in 2014 in Melbourne and then last year he followed that up with a surprising victory on the clay in Paris. While he lacks the consistency of some of his peers who have been at the top for longer, Wawrinka is capable of winning any tournament that he enters. A deep run in the first Slam of the year is no longer possible, it is expected.
Rafael Nadal had an average season by his standards last year and failed to reach a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time in his career. He couldn't even hold on to Roland Garros where he had won the previous 9 of 10 prior to 2015. Nadal appears to have lost his killer instinct and does not seem as physically imposing when he plays. While the French Open will still be within his grasp, I don't think he has the belief that he can win any of the other three Slams at this point in his career. Injuries have taken their toll and I would be quite surprised if we saw Rafa among the final four in Australia.
Aside from the regular favorites mentioned above, who happen to have claimed 41 of the past 44 Grand Slams, here are a few guys who want more than anything to break into the Grand Slam champions circle:
Tomas Berdych: A Slam finalist once at Wimbledon in 2010, the 6th ranked Berdych wins one and at most two ATP tournaments a year. This method has kept him in the top ten for many years but he never seems capable of beating the big guns. Now thirty years old it seems unlikely that Berdych will ever be able to put it together to win a Slam despite his immense talent.
Kei Nishikori: At 25 years old Nishikori certainly has time on his side and has made the finals of a hard court Slam before in 2014 in New York. His record at the Aussie Open is 16-6 and he has twice before advanced to the quarter-finals.
Milos Raonic: The Canadian Missile seemed to be the most likely to have a breakthrough at the Slam level but injuries are already starting to take their toll on the big man. He has had to withdraw from playing in the International Premiere Tennis League in December with back spasms which does not bode well for his chances to be ready to compete in best of five set matches in Melbourne. If he's healthy, this is a guy that could break through the big guns and make some noise.
John Isner: Similar to Raonic due to his immense height and booming serve, Isner is an older version who at the age of thirty needs to act now if he is going to taste Slam success. It is surprising to me that he has only once before made the quarterfinals of a major with the strength of his greatest weapon. He does have two Masters Series finals appearances under his belt which shows he can get hot and beat some top-level guys at times. Could it happen this year in Melbourne?
Nick Krygios: I put Kyrgios in here to stir things up a bit but also because he represents the next wave in men's tennis. Guys like Berdych, Ferrer, Tsonga and Gasquet for example are very unlikely to see the term "Grand Slam Champion" next to their names before they retire. Look to the up and coming generation who will not have to contend with Federer, Djokovic and Nadal for the bulk of their careers. Kyrgios has the swagger and confidence to will his way to a title. Others like David Goffin, Bernard Tomic, Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov and Borna Coric are also of the right age to snag some Slams at some point in their career. One of them could be a surprise in Australia this year if they are ready to make their move at a major just as an 18 year old Rafael Nadal or a 21 year old Roger Federer once did.