By Mike McIntyre
Picking a winner out of a tournament field of 128 professionals in any sport is normally quite a challenge. So many variables come into play when one attempts to narrow it down to the last man standing. In tennis, factors such as court surface, type of ball, weather conditions, confidence, skill and plain old luck of the draw usually all have an effect on a player's likelihood of emerging victorious. One location where these factors can seemingly all be thrown out the window is at Roland Garros in Paris. Making a prediction in this tournament could not be any easier thanks to the brilliance of Rafael Nadal. The undisputed king of clay courts is going for his fourth French Open crown in a row, attempting to equal a feat set by the great Bjorn Borg (1978-1981). Barring an injury, it would be the upset of the year should Nadal lose to any of the other 127 players in the draw. Any yet that is exactly what the other players will be aiming for as they compete for the biggest prize to be captured on clay. Let us take a look at the draw this year, and see who might be left standing with Rafa towards the end of the second week.
The top quarter has Nadal's biggest threat in the tournament, number one ranked Roger Federer. While Roger has had a mediocre year by his standards, he has recently teamed up with Jose Higueras as his coach. Having a former clay court specialist on his side can't hurt his chances of making it to the finals to face Nadal once again. Federer does not have much in the way of a serious challenge through the early rounds of the tournament. His path to the quarter finals could not have been any better even if they had let Roger handpick his opponents himself! This should give him a few rounds to fine-tune his game a little, and gather the confidence he will surely require to face Nadal at the end of the line. Holding a 1-8 record against Nadal on clay does not bode well for his chances. Federer will have to grab an early lead and hold it which is something he has not been able to do thus far in 2008 against the young Spaniard.
The second quarter is wide open and correctly picking the last man standing here would be quite a feat. The highest seed in this section, Richard Gasquet, has openly questioned his own abilities on the tennis court just recently and was not even sure if he would enter his home tournament. Others such as Fernando Gonzalez, Igor Andreev and Filippo Volandri all have talent on clay but rarely seem to be able to string together a few consistent matches in a row. Lately Swiss number two Stan Wawrinka has been playing quite well as is indicated by his status as the number nine seed. I'm going to give him a vote of confidence and state that the Swiss fans will have plenty to cheer about when he meets Federer in the quarterfinals.
In the third quarter we find versatile Russian Nikolai Davydenko leading the pack. Coming off a victory in Austria he has had a fairly strong clay court season thus far and has had previous success at Roland Garros. The only potential snag for Davydenko is the fact he was treated for a thigh injury in the finals this past week. Hopefully it was just a matter of cramping and nothing more serious than that. Davydenko’s likely round of sixteen opponent will be former French Open champ JC Ferrero, the only man to have beaten Nadal on clay this year. Only a shadow of his former self, Ferrero will not likely advance past this point. An unfortunate note in this section is that surprise Aussie Open finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has abruptly withdrawn due to a knee injury that requires surgery. While not a threat on the clay, Tsonga always brings a solid work ethic onto the court. He will likely be out of action for 3-4 months.
The final quarter of the upper quadrant does not contain many dangerous opponents. Expect to see Tommy Robredo and David Ferrer square off in the round of sixteen here. Other notables include Lleyton Hewitt who is coming back from a hip injury for his first clay court tournament of the season. While not usually a clay court threat, he did manage to make the final eight in Paris a year ago. Hopefully he is healed up and ready to give us a solid performance. I can’t help but think however that Hewitt’s days as a serious threat on tour are numbered. Injuries and becoming a husband and parent seem to have derailed his further progress. If he can’t rediscover some of his spark, one has to wonder how long he will remain on tour. One other player worth mentioning in this section is Guillermo Coria, the former French Open finalist from 2004 who will always be remembered for blowing a match point during that pivotal match versus Gaston “where have you gone” Gaudio. Coria has gone down in several first round matchups on clay this year and confidence is a huge issue for him at the moment.
Moving along, we have the most difficult quarter to try and breakdown. Players in this section must be feeling optimistic as any single one of them could emerge. While mostly a threat on hard courts, I somehow feel like James Blake could put together a solid first week to come out of this quarter alive. I don’t have much hope for talented, yet eternally disappointing Thomas Berdych to live up to his enormous potential. Marcos Baghdatis has not really had much clay court preparation this year, and his fitness levels are not up to standard for long rallies on the clay. I suppose Janko Tipsarevic could be a potential danger in this quadrant as well.
Everyone’s favourite impersonator on tour and 2008 race leader Novak Djokovic is virtually a lock to come out of the next quarter unscathed. A semi final with Nadal is very much the expectation here and Roger Federer would be hoping for a long, drawn out five-setter between the two no doubt. The first round match I suspect will gather the most attention here involves former three- time French Open champ and crowd favourite Gustavo Kuerten in the final tournament of his illustrious career. Don’t be shocked if the French crowd actually rallies for him against local Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu, who is heavily favoured. I’d love to see Kuerten actually take a round or two but feel as if that is asking for too much from the oft injured Brazilian who is appearing in his first Grand Slam since 2005. My surprise pick to make it to the round of 16 against Djokovic is Marcel Granollers of Spain. He had a strong clay court showing a month ago in Houston, Texas and could make a splash in this section. Also lurking is 1998 French Open champ Carlos Moya who thus far has had a disappointing season. Don’t be shocked if he bows out early.
The last two quarters contain some of the strongest clay court players in the tournament and will offer Nadal more resistance perhaps than he hoped for in the early goings. David Nalbandian has the talent and Grand Slam pedigree to make it out of his quarter. Nalbandian seems to somehow raise his level of play in master’s series events and Grand Slams, so he is definitely one to lookout for. Nicolas Almagro is also in his part of the draw, however despite much clay court success the past few years he has failed to translate that into victories when the pressure is on.
The final quarter has Nadal of course, and it is a toss up to predict his quarter final opponent. I’d have to go with Fernando Verdasco, but don’t be surprised if it is a lesser know player who steps it up instead.
Some first round matchups I would love to watch if they were televised include Andreas Seppi versus Mario Ancic which should be a good five-setter. Robin Soderling against Juan Monaco will pit two recently streaking players against one another. Finally, Kuerten/Mathieu as I mentioned before will be a real treat. Will Guga draw one last heart in the clay before he departs?
Darkhorses in this year’s edition include Soderling, Andreev, Radek Stepanek, Jose Acasuso and the aforementioned Granollers.
Notable absentees are Andy Roddick (shoulder), Tommy Haas (also injured), Tsonga (knee) and my personal favourite Nicolas Kiefer with a sore throat!
To recap my predictions for the final eight we have Federer, Wawrinka, Davydenko, Ferrer, Blake, Djokovic, Nalbandian and Nadal. I would not be surprised to see the top four seeds emerge in the semis with Federer toping Davydenko and Nadal besting Djokovic. Expect another successful performance from Rafa in the finals, with the French Open title once again eluding Roger Federer. At least he has the grass court season coming up just around the corner.