By Mike McIntyre

The Dark Horse:

Kei Nishikori gets my pick as the potential dark-horse of the 2012 Australian Open. The just-turned 22 year old is ranked 26^th in the world at the moment and has seen his fortunes quickly rise over the past year. In 2011 Nishikori had wins over Mardy Fish, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and most impressively, Novak Djokovic towards the end of October in Basel. This week at the Kooyong Classic he stepped in as a replacement for Milos Raonic and scored impressive wins over Tsonga again as well as Andy Roddick. Nishikori has a good draw with no troublesome opponents in the first two rounds and then potentially Gilles Simon in the 3^rd before a rematch perhaps with Tsonga in the fourth. If I were in his shoes I’d be feeling pretty good about the opening week in Melbourne. 

 

Higher-ranked/seeded player crashing out:

I would not hold my breath for American Andy Roddick advancing deep in this year’s Aussie Open. Roddick will be turning thirty this year but will find that milestone far less agreeable with him than Roger Federer did last summer. Roddick will very likely be facing Aussie veteran Lleyton Hewitt in the second round and that match could really go either way. Even if he were to get beyond Hewitt, a fresh-faced Milos Raonic could likely be waiting and the young Canadian has really come a long way in the past year.

 Best 1^st or 2^nd round Match:

A second round match between Richard Gasquet and Mikhail Youzhny has five sets written all over it. Youzhny leads their head-to-head 3-2 and that includes two victories here at the first Grand Slam of the year. Their last meeting at the Aussie Open was a five set win for the Russian in 2010 that included three tiebreaks to settle it.

 First round upset special:

If I have to pick one, I suppose I’ll go with Michael Russell over Juan Ignacio Chela. Between both veteran players, I’ll take Russell’s level of fitness in the Aussie heat and on a hard-court I never feel like Chela has much to offer despite being the 27^th seed here.

 Quarter-final choices and eventual champion:

Djokovic/Youzhny: Nobody is going to stop Djokovic from attaining the quarters despite it being several months now since his U.S. Open victory. Meanwhile I see Youhnzy picking up some momentum if he gets by Gasquet in round two.

 Monfils/Tsonga:  Murray will be feeling enormous pressure (as per usual) to win that elusive first Grand Slam, although Melbourne is probably his best bet to eventually break through. I’m really impressed with the rise of Monfils however, and see the Frenchman being more than capable of the upset to reach the quarters against compatriot Jo-Willy Tsonga.

Del Potro/Federer: No suprises here unless 19 year old Bernard Tomic can push Federer should they meet in the fourth round. Should be a fantastic match between the 2009 U.S. Open finalists and one I’m sure Federer would relish for a little revenge.

Nadal/Berdych: On paper it looks like an easy route to the quarters for both Nadal and Berdych. Neither John Isner or David Nalbandian is likely to challenge the Spaniard while Berdych even if he is playing mediocre, doesn’t have any serious threats in his quadrant.

Overall I can't see anyone beating Novak Djokovic for this title. Even with Federer's great finish to 2011, I don't think he has an edge on Novak at the moment when both are healthy and at their best. Federer's back may or may not be 100% while Djokovic seems to be over his shoulder problems. I see Djokovic taking his second consecutive, and third Aussie Open title overall here in 2012.

Comments

Djokovic, the master of all he surveys at the top of the world rankings had won and, in doing so, he had inflicted the deepest of wounds to Nadal’s psyche. It was the Serb’s seventh successive win in a final and his third consecutive victory over Nadal in a Grand Slam final. In the other finals, the normally indomitable Spaniard had seemed lost. He could not formulate a plan of attack to hurt his tormentor and he simply ran out of ideas. But this time, Nadal had a plan, this time he knew what to do and how to do it. And then Djokovic beat him.